Biogas is undergoing a transformation from a niche waste-to-energy process to a mainstream pillar of the clean energy mix.
Driven by policy reforms, net-zero targets, and a growing focus on circular economy principles, biogas is gaining momentum in the UK and across Northern Europe. So, what position does the current biogas market hold exactly, what’s behind emerging opportunities, technology and supply chain trends, and what barriers may impact its future trajectory? Let’s explore…
Untapped biogas potential
The UK biogas sector is already sizeable, with over 720 anaerobic digestion (AD) plants and approximately 3.2 GW of installed capacity. However, this is only a fraction of its potential. Industry experts estimate that biogas could supply up to 11% of the UK’s energy needs, particularly if planned food waste collection mandates and agricultural waste utilisation are fully implemented.
Policy changes are poised to unlock significant growth. DEFRA’s commitment to ban landfilling of food waste from 2025 will substantially increase the volume of organic feedstock available for biogas production. This could lead to the development of hundreds of new plants by the early 2030s, positioning biogas as a major contributor to the UK’s energy transition.
Internationally, Northern Europe offers similar promise. Denmark already injects over 8 TWh of biomethane into its grid – covering nearly a third of national gas consumption – and is aiming for 100% green gas by 2030. The Netherlands is implementing a blending mandate for biomethane, targeting more than 10 TWh of production by 2030. These policy moves are creating a stable market environment that is encouraging infrastructure investment and technological innovation.
Biogas growth drivers
1. Environmental and policy drivers
Governments are increasingly recognising biogas as a versatile climate solution. It cuts methane emissions from decomposing waste, displaces fossil fuels, and generates valuable co-products like digestate and liquid CO2. As a result, national strategies now link biogas deployment to broader objectives, such as:
Achieving net-zero emissions
Decarbonising heating systems
Meeting waste reduction and recycling targets
Enhancing energy resilience and domestic production
In the UK, incentives like the Green Gas Support Scheme (GGSS) are currently stimulating biomethane injection projects. Similarly, Denmark and the Netherlands have introduced regulatory frameworks that secure long-term market conditions for biogas developers.
2. Technological advancements
The biogas industry is benefitting from rapid technological innovation. Key developments include:
High-capacity membranes: New 11-inch modules enable higher gas throughput and more efficient upgrading.
Modular, prefabricated systems: Skid-mounted and containerised upgrading units, depackagers, and CO2 liquefaction systems reduce installation time and site disruption.
Advanced instrumentation: Enhanced gas quality sensors, flow meters, and digital controls improve process optimisation and uptime.
Carbon capture and liquefaction: LCO2 systems are increasingly integrated to monetise captured CO2 or support Power-to-X applications.
These technologies reduce capital costs, shorten time-to-market, and open the door to project standardisation and replication at scale.
3. Decentralised energy and circular economy models
Biogas is uniquely positioned as a decentralised energy solution. Plants can be sited close to feedstock sources – such as farms, food processors, or municipal waste depots – and deliver power, heat, and biomethane to local users. This supports rural economic development, reduces transmission losses, and increases energy security.
Moreover, biogas enables a circular economy by recovering energy and nutrients from waste. Digestate, the organic byproduct, can be used as a soil conditioner, replacing synthetic fertilisers and returning carbon to agricultural soils.
Trends in Northern Europe
Scandinavia and the Benelux region are trailblazing in areas such as biogas grid injection, transport biofuels, and CO2 recovery:
Denmark: Biogas covers 30% of national gas demand. CO2 tax reform is under consideration to boost the competitiveness of biomethane.
Netherlands: Blending mandates and grid support programmes are stimulating large-scale biomethane projects.
Sweden/Norway: Focused on bio-CNG/LNG for heavy transport. National fleet decarbonisation plans are fuelling demand for upgraded biogas.
These regions often deploy modular technologies, integrate smart grid connections, and implement nutrient recovery solutions – offering models for replication in the UK.
Barriers to Growth
Despite the favourable outlook, several obstacles could slow the expansion of biogas.
Complex and slow permitting processes remain one of the biggest hurdles. Projects can face opposition from local communities (NIMBYism), strict environmental requirements, and inconsistent interpretations of regulations. These delays increase project risk and discourage smaller developers.
Furthermore, many early biogas projects in the UK were supported by feed-in tariffs or the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI). As these schemes end, and with the GGSS closing to new applicants in 2028, the industry faces uncertainty. Without new, long-term support mechanisms, investment may falter.
There’s also an ageing infrastructure in place. A significant portion of the UK’s biogas plants are more than a decade old. As subsidies expire, these facilities will need refurbishment or conversion to biomethane production to remain viable. Without reinvestment, they risk closure. Biomethane projects can also face grid injection bottlenecks, particularly in regions where infrastructure is underdeveloped. Upgrades to the gas network, including compressors and odorisation systems, are often required and can add complexity and cost.
And finally, quality regulations also impact growth, particularly stricter rules around the land application of digestate, where contamination from plastics and packaging is a concern. This is forcing operators to invest in better pre-treatment and decontamination systems. Whilst beneficial in the long term, this creates a new compliance cost.
Accelerating biogas deployment
To unlock the full potential of biogas, stakeholders are taking proactive steps to overcome barriers:
Modularisation: Prefabricated, containerised systems are helping projects navigate planning and installation hurdles.
Retrofits and upgrades: Aging plants are being modernised with new instrumentation, CHP control panels, and biomethane conversion packages.
Digitalisation: IoT-based monitoring and predictive maintenance are improving efficiency and plant uptime.
Policy Reform: Industry bodies are advocating for outcome-based regulation and long-term incentives that reflect the full climate value of biogas.
Finance Innovation: New business models, such as community ownership and off-balance sheet leasing, are making projects more accessible.
Tipping point
Biogas is at a tipping point. As a flexible, dispatchable, and renewable energy source, it complements variable renewables like wind and solar. Its ability to process organic waste and reduce methane emissions adds further environmental value.
The next decade could see a doubling or tripling of biogas capacity in the UK and similar growth across Northern Europe. But this will only be achieved if barriers are addressed and investment is mobilised.
Events such as the World Biogas Expo which took place over the past couple of days (July 9-10 2025), and the work of organisations like ADBA and the World Biogas Association will continue to play a critical role in knowledge sharing and policy advocacy.
No doubt, the biogas sector is primed for growth, but it needs the right mix of technology, finance, and regulatory alignment. Then, it has the potential to become a cornerstone of a decarbonised, circular energy system across Europe and the rest of the world.
Key Sources
- World Biogas Expo & ADBA
- International Energy Agency Bioenergy Task 37 Reports
- UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA)
- European Biogas Association
- Bioenergy Insight Magazine
- Renewable Energy Magazine
- World Biogas Association
